Dive Brief:
- The American Forest & Paper Association has released its annual analysis of fiber recycling rates. The figures for 2025 are roughly flat compared with the prior year.
- AF&PA estimates the 2025 paper recycling rate was between 61% and 65%, up from a range of 60% to 64% in 2024. The cardboard recycling rate was estimated to be 70% to 75%, compared with 69% to 74% the prior year.
- U.S. mills consumed 31.4 million tons of recycled paper to manufacture new products in 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 1.3 million tons. Mills’ consumption had increased by 1.29 million tons the prior year.
Dive Insight:
Declines in U.S. paper and paperboard production resulted in decreased generation of recovered paper available for recycling in 2025, according to AF&PA. The association’s observations about production declines align with containerboard manufacturers announcing facility closures totaling a nearly 10% production capacity pullback in 2025.
“Containerboard capacity adjustments demonstrate the industry adapting to shifting global market and operational strategies,” said Abigail Sztein, executive director of recovered fiber at AF&PA. Total paper and paperboard operating rates increased to 89.4% in 2025, up from 88.1% in 2024, she said.
Despite market dynamics that led to decreased fiber production last year, paper recovery remained strong relative to the available supply, according to AF&PA.
“Our industry shows continued resilience. The paper industry operates at a significant scale, and it's adapting to changing market conditions,” Sztein said. “The rate shows that the paper recycling system is functioning as designed, and the system held steady.”
Last year, AF&PA cited a decrease in exports as the driver of lower paper and cardboard recycling rates in 2024. That year, 27% of recycled paper in the U.S. was exported. In 2025, the figure increased to 29%, according to AF&PA.
The association previously pointed to decreased demand from Asia for the export dip in 2024. Now AF&PA is watching a different trade dynamic: tariffs. The U.S.-Canada trade war is of particular interest considering the volume of cross-border movement for the fiber sector’s raw materials and products.
“We can't really speculate or predict future outcomes, but AF&PA is committed to engaging with the administration and ensure we can continue to invest in modernizing and expanding domestic mills,” Sztein said.
She said AF&PA’s methodology for calculating the U.S. paper recycling rate incorporates global trade flows, among other factors.
The group changed its methodology a couple of years ago, switching from precise estimates to percentage ranges. The changes followed a controversy in which industry observers questioned whether the stated rates were deceivingly high. AF&PA introduced an “effective recycling rate” measurement in 2023 in addition to its traditional rate, and in 2024 it began using just the range approach.
