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By the numbers: Q4 and full year 2025
Q4 revenue: $4.14B
Up 2.2% year over year
2025 revenue: $16.59B
Up 3.5% year over year
Q4 net income: $545M
Up 6.4% year over year
- Results: Republic Services missed its full-year 2025 projections in several metrics, with revenue coming in about $260 million below the $16.85 billion the company projected as the lower bound of its guidance a year ago. Still, Republic reported an improvement over the prior year in most metrics and exceeded guidance for adjusted free cash flow. Executives said the company is positioning itself for long-term growth, including in its environmental services business. “Through healthy pricing and disciplined cost management, we successfully navigated cyclical demand headwinds and exceeded expectations for full-year adjusted earnings and adjusted free cash flow," Jon Vander Ark, president and CEO, said in a statement.
- Volumes: Overall volumes were down 1% year over year in Q4. On the landfill side, that was driven by a 14.8% decline in C&D waste and 2.2% reduction in MSW, though special waste was up 15% year over year. On the collections side, residential volumes were down 3%, largely due to intentional shedding of low-performing contracts, executives said. They also noted continued softness in manufacturing and construction end markets negatively impacting volumes.
- AI and digital tools: The company continues to implement its Rise digital platform, which offers artificial intelligence-enhanced routing capabilities. On the company’s Tuesday earnings call, Vander Ark said digital tools would drive "nine figures" of cost improvements for the company over time. The company has begun exploring the use of AI in pricing, using advanced computing to determine prices that maximize returns while ensuring customers stick around over the long term, Vander Ark said. He also noted that the company was able to use AI to proactively send out 70 million customer notifications addressing holiday service schedules and weather related delays, reducing call volume.
- Polymer centers: Volumes continue to increase at Republic's polymer centers, which are operational in Las Vegas and Indianapolis, and they contributed $45 million in revenue in 2025, according to CFO Brian DelGhiaccio. Vander Ark said construction has begun on the company's third polymer center in Allentown, Pennsylvania. He said the company would likely build a fourth eventually, but the market for plastics prevents such plans in the near term. In the fourth quarter, Republic's average recycled commodity price per ton sold at its recycling centers was $112, down $41 year over year.
- Environmental services: Revenue for the company's environmental solutions segment was down 12.8% year over year in the fourth quarter and 4.1% for full year 2025 versus 2024. Executives said the business segment faced difficult comparisons to the prior year due to event-based work that didn't repeat in 2025, including a $50 million job. Vander Ark said emergency response work last year was "historically low," but he said a strong sales pipeline is expected to improve performance into the second half of this year.
- 2026 guidance: For the current fiscal year, Republic is projecting revenue between $17.05 billion and $17.15 billion. It projects adjusted earnings before income, taxes, depreciation and amortization between $5.475 billion and $5.525 billion. It projects spending $1 billion on acquisitions this year and so far has spent about $400 million. Last year, Republic spent about $1.1 billion on M&A.
