By the numbers
Q4 revenue: $2.37B
Up 5% year over year
Q4 net income: $258.5M
Compared with a net loss of $196M in the same period last year
Q4 adjusted EBITDA: $795.6M
Up 8.7% year over year, a margin of 33.5% of revenue
- Financial picture: During a Q4 earnings call on Thursday, CEO Ron Mittelstaedt called 2025 a “remarkable” year, noting how pricing changes drove organic growth in the solid waste segment and highlighting operational improvements and better employee retention.
- Acquisitions: 2025 saw “above-average acquisition activity,” with 19 acquisitions and about $330 million in acquired annualized revenue, Mittelstaedt said. That included a transfer station in Queens, New York, and a recycling facility in Hoboken, New Jersey. Expected rollover revenue contribution from 2025 acquisitions is about $125 million. So far in 2026, Waste Connections already closed on about $20 million in acquisitions the first week of February, he said.
- Price: Solid waste core price was 6.5% in 2025, which CFO Mary Anne Whitney said exceeded the company’s original expectations for the year. That helped even out headwinds from lower commodity prices. Core pricing for Q4 was 6.4% and ranged from 3.7% in exclusive markets in the West and over 7% in more competitive regions, she said.
- Volumes: Q4 overall volume was down 2.7%, which Whitney said was in line with previous quarters and reflected the impacts of intentional shedding of certain contracts and “ongoing weakness in the more cyclically driven elements of the business.” Total landfill tons were up 3%, while both MSW and special waste volumes were up 4%. C&D volumes were down 4% for the quarter and 5% for the full year. For the full year of 2025, MSW tons were up 3%, which she said was due in part to “a purposeful increase internalization in the Northeast and certain Texas markets.”
- AI improvements: Waste Connections is continuing to develop artificial intelligence-driven tech improvements to streamline efficiency and productivity, which could come online later this year, Mittelstaedt said. One project is a “dynamic routing platform” meant to adjust routes based on real-time data on traffic, road closures and other information. Another AI project will offer customers a driver tracking feature that shows when pickups will take place. It’s part of a move to cut customer call volumes by up to 50% by addressing common questions.
- RNG updates: Waste Connections continues to work on its renewable natural gas facility plans, with five such facilities already online and the other five expected to be operational by the end of 2026, Mittelstaedt said. Whitney estimates the company will spend about $75 million on such projects this year. The company also hired a consultant to help optimize its RNG strategy. Several projects have faced delays, including a Canadian RNG facility expected in April 2025 that just came online in December, but Whitney said RNG has been a “terrific” revenue-generating investment. “We have $6 billion sunk into our landfills. Of course, we're looking to monetize the value of the gas created there. You should expect us to continue to opportunistically pursue these projects,” she said.
- Recycling: Low commodity values persisted throughout 2025, with some stabilization in fiber markets offset by weakness in plastics markets. Waste Connections could spend about $25 million in 2026 on recycling-related investments meant to “de-risk” the segment and improve the quality of recyclables, Whitney said. The company broke ground in 2025 on a large recycling facility in Colorado, which is expected to come online in 2027.
- Chiquita Canyon landfill updates: Waste Connections continues to manage an ongoing “elevated temperature landfill” event causing odor issues at Chiquita Canyon Landfill in California, which closed in January 2025. The company spent about $200 million in 2025 on that project and expects to spend between $100 million and $150 million in 2026. While technical aspects of the project “are moving forward largely as expected,” Mittelstaedt said “political challenges” related to regulatory permitting and legal “have drug out and inflated and already burdensome and dysfunctional process.” Waste Connections had previously asked the U.S. EPA to coordinate regulatory oversight, which Mittelstaedt said has helped streamline certain processes.
- Outlook: Waste Connections estimates 2026 revenue will be between $9.9 billion and $9.95 billion, with a net income range of $1.223 billion to $1.238 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $3.3 billion and $3.325 billion. The company’s outlook doesn’t include impacts from acquisitions or possible improvements in commodity prices, which some analysts read as a conservative start to the year.
