The waste industry dealt with considerable uncertainty last year, as federal policy led to some instability in the macroeconomic environment. But despite those challenges and the following economic impacts, garbage and recyclables were mostly picked up as usual and investment continued to flow.
As grant funding was paused or in some cases cut off for public sector actors in waste and recycling, states began to step in. That’s expected to continue in the new year.
In 2026, the industry can look toward what's predicted to be a less tumultuous economic environment. Regulations at the state level are also expected to tighten on issues like per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, extended producer responsibility, landfill emissions and food waste, creating both positive and negative impacts.
Meanwhile, operators are expected to continue remaking their fleets with diesel alternatives, the biogas market will see new action on incentives and safety will remain a priority for the industry and our coverage.
Have thoughts on these trends or any others? Please reach out to us at waste.dive.editors@industrydive.com.
M&A continues to consolidate the industry
Last year, an analysis from the Waste Business Journal found that waste and recycling was officially a $100 billion industry. But peek underneath the hood, and you’d see that major publicly traded companies — namely WM, Republic Services, Waste Connections and GFL Environmental — also now account for about half of all industry revenue, according to RBC Capital Markets.
That consolidation trend is expected to continue this year. What’s more, the industry continues to attract outside investors who increasingly view waste and recycling collection as a stable play.
In recent years, the waste and recycling industry has seen strong growth. Its compound annual growth rate has averaged around 7% since 2020, compared to 3% between 2012 and 2019, according to RBC. That’s due in part to the majors setting price growth slightly ahead of the post-pandemic era’s higher inflation rate. With inflation expected to cool slightly this year, the majors are likely to continue to drive organic revenue growth through price increases at a slightly reduced pace.
But that cool-off period may also be the result of increased macroeconomic stability. If that happens, the industry’s counter-cyclical nature could work against it. In the third quarter of 2025, the number of deals in the broader environmental services industry was down slightly as investors grew more tolerant of risk, compared to the first half of the year when those dynamics were flipped, according to a November report from Houlihan Lokey. That downturn also came as public waste companies reported softness in their manufacturing and construction business lines, demonstrating where they’re still exposed to the vicissitudes of the broader market.
Any dampening of interest from outside investors is unlikely to weigh too heavily on transaction volume this year. Public companies are still committed to spending capital on M&A, and private equity firms will continue to spin up new platforms and flip those that have matured. Already, major deals like Veolia’s purchase of Clean Earth from Enviri are scheduled to close this year, a landmark deal for the environmental services sector. The waste and recycling industry remains poised for a year of dealmaking.
Commodity and market trends
2025 was an uncertain year for recyclers in the United States due to interconnected influences from tariffs, labor constraints and waning consumer spending. Ongoing commodity price headwinds complicated operations further.
2026 will still see some similar influences, and waste industry analysts have mixed opinions on how exactly these factors will play out. Some analysts predict persistent overall commodity price headwinds to drive prices slightly lower in the early part of 2026, while others say combined recycled commodity prices could stay somewhat flat.
A lagging economy could continue to hurt recycled commodity markets. Recent data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index, a monthly indicator of a country’s manufacturing sector health, showed U.S. manufacturing activity dropped to its lowest point of 2025 in December. The report pointed to continued tariff uncertainty and overall weak demand as factors.
Some analysts are expecting tariffs may continue to cause some element of uncertainty in recycling markets in the beginning of 2026. Some recycled commodity-related tariffs imposed last year include country-specific tariffs on rPET.
Most major publicly traded waste companies are expected to release full-year 2026 guidance during Q4 earnings calls later in January and February, which should give more insight into how such companies are further adjusting for winter and spring commodity price trends. WM, for example, reported in October that it expects commodity price declines to affect its previously estimated 2026-2027 blended commodity price range of between $75 a ton and $150.
Several waste companies have said their long-term investments in recycling equipment and technology were designed to get more value out of recycling streams regardless of commodity price headwinds, and automation has cut down on operational costs.
Companies like WM and Republic Services say they are expecting stronger pricing and volume demand in 2026 as a result of infrastructure investments at MRFs and polymer centers. But some regions are still grappling with facility closures that wreaked havoc on recycling supply chains for some plastics last year, creating further unknowns. A recent closure included Phoenix Technologies shutting its Ohio rPET plant last month, and rPlanet Earth closed in California in September.
New extended producer responsibility for packaging laws could create some tailwinds for the industry, some analysts pointed out. Such laws in places like Canada, Oregon and Colorado could help boost their earnings from recycled commodities this year and beyond.
EPR returns in 2026 with packaging and battery bills, plus implementation milestones
EPR continues to be a driving influence in the recycling industry in 2026, both in terms of new legislation and newly implemented law rollouts.
Lawmakers will continue to debate EPR for packaging legislation in numerous states this year. Wisconsin lawmakers have already filed a bill, while many expect New York’s EPR for packaging saga to continue, especially after last year’s bill ran out of time to be considered.
Experts also expect 2026 will shed light on how fledgling EPR for packaging programs are working out on a practical level. Ontario is in the midst of rolling out its updated EPR program, expected to provide new recycling and waste business opportunities. Meanwhile, Colorado will roll out its program later this year.
Oregon, the first state to enact EPR for packaging, will recognize its first full year with the program in July, and producer funding is expected to help boost new recycling programs and infrastructure there. Recycling requirements for multifamily buildings will also kick in this year.
Needs assessments are becoming a critical piece of the EPR for packaging puzzle, and Illinois, Rhode Island and Washington expected to release needs assessments in December.
Meanwhile, experts also expect more packaging EPR study bills to pop up. Plus, a Massachusetts commission has recommended a further study of packaging EPR, along with other possible EPR programs for electronics, paint, mattresses and batteries.
Battery EPR legislation is also expected to be a notable theme this year. Lawmakers in states like Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and Wisconsin have already introduced such bills, with more states likely to follow. Battery EPR also has major support from the National Waste & Recycling Association, which sees the policy as a critical way to reduce facility fires.
For paint EPR, states like Missouri and New Hampshire are considering such programs.
More textile EPR bills similar to the one California passed a few years ago could also be in the works in some states, as several recycling groups are working together to scale up textile recycling programs and infrastructure across the country. California is scheduled to choose its producer responsibility organization for its program in March.
PFAS lawsuits, research and investment to move forward in 2026
The industry will continue to monitor how the regulation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances will affect both business opportunities and potential liability and regulatory risks.
Two key court cases with implications for the waste industry will move forward this year, though analysts say it’s too early to tell whether either will resolve in 2026.
One relevant lawsuit concerns the U.S. EPA’s hazardous substance designation for two types of PFAS: PFOS and PFOA. The National Waste & Recycling Association sued over the designation, arguing it exposed waste facilities to liability because they are “passive receivers” of the chemicals. The agency will defend its rule designation in court, with oral arguments scheduled to start on Jan. 20.
At the same time, some waste and recycling groups are also putting pressure on Congress to pass laws protecting them as passive receivers. Such groups have been working for several years to persuade lawmakers to do so, including through previously introduced legislation.
Another ongoing lawsuit involves how the U.S. EPA regulates PFAS in drinking water. The American Water Works Association and Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies sued the agency, saying the EPA did not follow required legal steps under the Safe Drinking Water Act when it set new drinking water standards for certain PFAS in 2024. The groups want to reverse the full set of six PFAS drinking standards set under the Biden administration.
The EPA plans to defend its decision to regulate two PFAS — PFOA and PFOS — but it asked to vacate part of the lawsuit because the agency now agrees that it did not follow processes when it decided to add four other types of PFAS to the standard. As of December, a judge is in the process of deciding whether parties involved in the lawsuit can submit updated briefs that reflect or respond to EPA’s change in stance, a step both sides say will take some time.
In the meantime, the agency is still working on various aspects of PFAS research and rule development, according to sources familiar with the EPA’s day-to-day work on the chemicals. That’s despite disruption from a month-and-a-half-long government shutdown last fall and the reorganization of the agency’s key research office.
The EPA is required to regularly update a key guidance document with research on PFAS destruction and disposal technologies, and last year the agency said it would now provide updates annually instead of every three years. The agency also said it intends to develop a new rule on how it might craft future hazardous substance designations, including cost considerations, but has not yet offered a timeline for the process. It has also said it plans to move forward with effluent limitations guidelines for certain PFAS producers and revisit landfill ELGs in 2027.
Meanwhile, companies in the PFAS remediation space are optimistic that their project pipelines will stay steady in 2026. The federal government continues to partner with private industry for PFAS cleanup projects, and several other major companies have announced or are planning to announce PFAS destruction or disposal partnerships for the year.
Disposal facility monitoring takes off
Landfills may be more closely watched than ever in 2026, as new regulations and monitoring efforts ramp up.
On Dec. 18, Colorado adopted a landfill gas rule that went beyond federal standards for the first time in the state's history. The rule set more stringent gas monitoring and control requirements, and also required operators to respond to third-party observations of exceedances. It's the second state to include the latter requirement, after California adopted it in its own Landfill Methane Regulation update in November. Advocates are hoping other states like New York and Michigan will take similar action this year.
Those requirements are themselves a reaction to methane’s role in climate change and are enabled by rising data collection capabilities in the sky. GHGSat has continued to grow its fleet of methane-observing satellites, with plans to nearly double the size of its fleet between 2024 and the end of 2026. California is also partnering with Carbon Mapper, which launched its own satellite last year, to closely track landfill methane plumes. Carbon Mapper publishes plume data on its website, further enhancing opportunities for the general public to track landfills for any issues.
The industry is also overdue for additional federal regulations. The EPA said it would release air emissions regulations for new and existing municipal solid waste landfills last year, but it so far has not released a rule proposal. The agency last updated its language 10 years ago, though it wasn’t fully implemented in 2021. Those rules are meant to be updated every eight years. Both Trump administrations have worked to block or roll back emissions-curbing regulations, but after blowing past its regulatory deadline, that may change this year.
